Hirp Answers

My cousin recently tweeted that he thought the NBA turned into a fantasy league, so I (and hopefully you) have him to thank for this post. I couldn’t help but wonder when exactly the perception of the NBA changed. Is it really something new, or have things been this way for years, even before fantasy leagues popped up all over the country.

Was it when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar passed on a $1 million offer from the Harlem Globetrotters, and was selected by the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA AND the New Jersey Nets in the ABA, and informed both teams that he’d sign with the highest bidder? Or was that just an anomaly? Mostly, I believe, the perception of a fantasy league stems from seeing the top players move around so frequently.

Looking back to the 70’s, the players as well as the public had to choose between the NBA and the ABA, and when the decision was made that the NBA was the league, the top players didn’t move around all that often. Dr J was a 76er, as was Moses Malone. Walt Frazier was a Knick and George Gervin a Spur. Then there’s Kareem again, who split the 70’s between Milwaukee and the Lakers. Again, it was a power move that got him to LA, when he felt the city of Milwaukee didn’t meet all his needs, and asked to be dealt to LA or New York. Was that the beginning of the Fantasy League era? I don’t believe so.

As with the 80’s we again saw the top players seldom move around during their primes. But the 80’s did lay down the tracks that lead to the Fantasy Era. Prior to the 1984-85 season they instituted a salary cap and then the lottery draft system for the 1985 draft. Which of course, we all know was famously fixed so that the New York Knicks would get Patrick Ewing. Thanks for that, Mr. Stern.

The cap and lottery worked together in creating an environment that made the Fantasy a reality. The lottery has now been around for 25 years, and the truth is this; having a better chance at picking the top college players doesn’t matter when the organization is clueless. Looking at the all-time records, the worst 10 organizations based on win-loss % are the: Grizzlies, Bobcats, Clippers, Raptors, Timerwolves, Nets, Warriors, Wizards, Cavs and Kings. Only one of those teams made the playoffs last year. Sure, they may flair up on occasion and have some good years, or sold to someone who has a clue, but over time, the bad have been bad. What does that have to do with the lottery? Over the last 10 years those 10 teams have had 22 top 5 picks. Nearly half of the top 5 picks in the league belong to a third of the leagues teams.

I’ll come back to how this has lead to a fantasy league a little later. Now it’s time to introduce another co-conspirator; the kids that came either directly from high school or before their junior year of college. First, this started a youth movement, but also a trend of unproven talent. A 22 year old that played four years of college is not only rare, he’s looked at as being old. The fact that his skill set is more defined, is also perceived as limiting, where as the younger guy has the higher ceiling, simply because less is known.

The sophomore trend began popping up in 1993 with Chris Webber, who went on to have a confusing career. He went from Rookie of the Year to drifter, to “the Man” on a Championship caliber team, to a career shortened by injury. He’s both a disappointment, because we thought he’d redefine his position, but he’s also a borderline Hall of Famer. Jason Kidd was another sophomore turned pro the next year, and has a similar career to Webber (the messy divorce in Dallas, all the talent in the world, but he’s been traded three times, twice by his prime).

Then in 1995, the shit really hit the fan. The top 4 picks had all left school after their sophomore seasons. Joe Smith (bust) Antonio McDyess (bust) Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace. The 5th pick in that draft, Kevin Garnett, started a new trend, the direct from high school prospect. The next five drafts gave us Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Rashard Lewis, Jermaine O’Neal as well as Jonathan Bender, Al Harrington, and Korleone Young, not to mention loads more of sophomore players as well as the one and done kids.

So now we have horribly run teams taking underdeveloped players. That works in one of three ways, but two cases are more frequent. First, you get a hit and the guy works out (Kobe, KG, Antoine Walker) or you get a bust (Tim Thomas, Olowokandi, Robert Traylor) or you get someone who uses his four year contract (as part of the collective bargain agreement) as a tryout for both a bigger contract and a better team (Rip Hamilton, Mike Bibby, Vince Carter, McGrady, Stephon Marbury for examples)

Having guys who don’t go and play three or four years of college ball gives the league underdeveloped talent, who also are so used to being the man in high school and often don’t adjust well to being around so much talent. Yet, teams see where it has worked, and everyone thinks they can get lucky. The lottery has become not just a lottery for position, but talent, everyone betting a buck hoping to get rich.

So what do these poorly run organizations do, when their draft picks are mistakes? They swing for the fences in a little game that I like to call “free agency.” And you know what happens when you have a cap on how much someone can spend, when that person isn’t all that good at budget their money? You get the same thing that would happen if you sent me into Best Buy with a $5,000 gift card. Mistakes.

ESPN.com listed the top 10 worst NBA contracts ever. The list consists of:
Stephon Marbury, four years, $76 million with the Suns in ’03.
Kenyon Martin, seven years $92.5 million with the Nets as part of a sign and trade deal with Denver in ’04.
Allan Houston, seven years, $100 million with the Knicks in ’01.
Keith Van Horn (twice) but the worst was his first with the Nets, for six years and $73 million in ’99.
Vin Baker for seven years and $86 million in ’99 with the Sonics.
Jermaine O’Neal signed for seven years a whopping $126.6million in ’03 with the Pacers.
Bryan Reeves, six years and $64 million in ’97 with the Grizzlies.
Ben Wallace got four years at $60 million in ’06 by the Bulls.
Jim Mcllavine, seven years and $35 million with the Sonics in ’96.
#10 was Juwan Howard, seven years for $105 million in ’96 with the Bullets.

Remember that list of 10 awful franchises? They account for four of these 10 awful deals.

1996 is a key here by the way. What happened in 1996 was the NBA had its first major class of free agents hit the open market. The top two picks from the ’92 draft, Shaquille O’Neal and Alonzo Mourning moved to new teams. Shaq signed for seven years and $121 million and ‘Zo for $105 million. The vaults were open, as seen by the Howard and Mcllavine deals.

The freaks have made everyone’s eyes too big for their stomachs. The world saw the Lakers land Kobe Bryant, but they didn’t take notice of how they didn’t start him full time till his third year. Kevin Garnett was a part time player his rookie year, and didn’t hit his stride till he was 22, oddly enough, the same age as most players who play four years of college ball. Even Jermaine O’Neal and Tracy McGrady were brought along slowly.

In 2006 the league implemented a rule stating that a player must be at least 19 to enter the draft, thus creating the “one and done” rule. And the last three #1 draft picks have been just followed that road. And it isn’t even driven by getting that first big contract, it’s to hurry up and hit free agency as soon as possible, where the real money awaits. The league awaits King James’ free agency after this year, at the tender age of 25. Kirk Hinrich was drafted the same year, and he’ll be 29 after this season. That’s pretty much the beginning of the end for most basketball players. Lebron earned roughly $20 million his first four years in the league, but he doesn’t think that going to college would have cost him $20 million, it’s the fact that it would have cost him two max contracts in his prime, which will bring him over $200 million.

And with guys like him, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh hitting the market at the same time next year, cap space has become more valuable than draft picks. So teams spend years (see the Knicks) acquiring expiring contracts, just with the hopes of being able to land a big fish.

Giving us, the fans, a league that more closely resembles a fantasy league than the league we grew up with. The perception is of today, but the foundation was built over years.