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August 25, 2009

Baseblog II: The Doctor is In.

Just because baseball-reference.com is the best ways for a geek like me to make the last hour of work go by, I was able to do some meaningless research (over a few days, of course).

Today, shockingly, I was looking at great years by pitchers, and started with Dwight Gooden in 1985.

In his 24 wins, Doc was 24-0 (duh) with a ridiculous 1.07 era. In his four loses, his average stat line was 7 ip, 6 hits, 2.25 runs, 7 k’s and 1.25 walks. You know what happens if you have numbers like that over 35 starts? 245 IP, 210 hits, 245 K’s and just 44 walks.

His last two no decisions came in September, and in each of those games he pitched 9 innings without giving up a run. The Mets won one in extra innings, and lost the other. If they score just one run in the first 9 innings of each of those games, Gooden ends up 26-4 with a 1.53 era, 18 complete games and 10 shutouts.

The Mets were in a battle for first with the St. Louis Cardinals that year, and in the last month of the season, Gooden’s era was .34. He had blood alcohol levels higher in all of his DUI stops. Okay, so that last part isn’t true.

Here’s something else, that’s just as insane. Over his last nine starts in 1984, Gooden was 8-1 with 5 CGs, 105 k’s in 76 innings. So over 44 starts he was 32-5, 352ip, 240hits, 373 strikeouts, with 21 complete games and 10 shutouts. His era was 1.43. Oh, and in those 5 loses, he gave up a combined 10 runs.

Pedro Martinez had one of the all-time great stretches, with his best years coming in 1999-2000. The best he did over a 44 game stretch was 31-7 in 307 innings, giving up 213 hits, with 8 complete games and 3 shutouts and striking out 436 and had a 1.79 era.

In 1968, Bob Gibson set the record for the lowest ERA by a starting pitcher for a season, a miniscule 1.12. That year he made 35 starts, so I looked up how he did in his next nine. Not really sure how I settled on 44 starts, probably because I just happened to see how amazing Doc was for his 44 start stretch. So including his first 9 starts of 1969, Gibson was 29-11 with a 1.20 era. He struck out 339 in 382 innings. Gibson completed an astounding 35 of those 44 starts, 16 of them were shutouts.

I couldn’t write about this without looking at Roger Clemens and some of the remarkable seasons he had, and I thought it’d be better to do his best 44 before the “era” began, and his best 44 consecutive starts after the juice was loose.

Using his 1990 stats and first 13 starts of ’91, Rocket went 30-9 with 2.02 era, 304 k’s, 10 complete games and 4 shutouts. And then in Toronto, when he MAY have gone on some sort of substance, he went 29-10 with 2.20 era, 385 k’s, 13 complete games and 5 shutouts.

So Doc ends up with the most wins, fewest loses, top 3 in strikeouts, second in complete games and shutouts. That’s dominating, to say the least. And I have to ask myself, would could have been? And so I had to try and answer myself. I looked at the career he had up through 1991, when he still resembled the Dr. K and from 1992-2000 I used the pitcher that baseball-reference lists as having the most similar career to Gooden, his former teammate, David Cone. Had Gooden had the years Cone had over those nine seasons, he would have retired (at age 35) with 249 wins, a .660 winning %, a 3.23 era and 3,115 strike outs. He would be tied for 47th all-time in wins, 20th in winning %, 16th in strikeouts. He’d have an era lower than Bob Feller, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Phil Niekro.

And he’d be retired at 35, 10 years younger than Randy Johnson is now. Clemens last pitched at 44. Greg Maddux at 42, even David Cone pitched till he was 40.

Man, what could have been. A Hall of Famer and all-time great, that’s what could have been.

August 20, 2009

I Found Myself

I knew I supported health care reform, but when I Googled Hirp and saw that it was a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization at George Washington University (founded in 1995, a year after I picked up the nickname), well I even surprised myself. Health Insurance Reform Project (HIRP) and the best I had ever come up with was He Is Really Pissed, and I kinda was back then.

Here you can see a history of HIRP Research Briefs, which is funny, cause I never owned any briefs.

http://www.nhpf.org/library/products.cfm/HIRP

But hey, I finally found myself. “HIRP is currently co-located with the National Health Policy Forum.”

Still, I’m pretty annoyed that I ever let the rights to hirp.com lapse. A few years ago I tried to get it back, and they wanted $7,000, because it was “in development” for something big. It’s now a completely retarded collection of obvious scams. So maybe it’s not that different from what I produce now.

August 19, 2009

Baseblog

I’ve always been a big fan of “what if” and a recent story about Ken Griffey Jr has me playing the game out in some excel files. Turns out that Seattle almost passed on Griffey with the #1 pick in the 1987 draft. I’ve never even thought about that possibility, and now I’m borderline obsessed with it.

The ripple effect of that one pick, assuming everyone went on to have the careers they had, would have changed the last 22 years of baseball, as well as the future. It really is mind boggling. Up would be down, right would be left, Seattle would be Tampa and the Pirates would have been on top. As the Pirates had the second pick in the ’87 draft, and Griffey who made it to the show in 1989 would have played along side Andy Van Slyke and a 24 year old left fielder named Barry Bonds. Bobby Bonilla plays third, and the ripple begins.

I figure that the M’s lose 10 more games than they did in ’89 without JR and they end up drafting Alex Fernandez in the 1990 draft. Turns out, he’s the only Alex we’d ever picture in a Seattle jersey (which would be different today, because Griffey helped design the jerseys we now know).

The real impact comes in the 1992 draft. After the Mariners, assuming an extra 10 losses (with a few coming against the Yankees) the Mariners hold the #6 pick. So they draft a shortstop out of Kalamazoo Michigan, he goes by the name of Derek Jeter. And now we can really see how things have changed.

In October of 1992 we saw the Pirates win the World Series. They won 96 games with Alex Cole and Cecil Epsy playing right field, and they’ve been replaced with Griffey and his 27 homers (positive gain of 26). And because they didn’t need to worry about replacing the power of Bonilla who left for NY after ’91, the Pirates hold on to John Smiley, who was coming off of a 20 win season, and won 16 more for the Twins in ’92. They take out the Braves in the League Championship Series. We know of a Ken Griffey Jr who has played 21 seasons without winning a World Series, and a Bonds that played 22 without one. Now they both have a title before either is even 30 years old.

Coming off wining possibly his second World Series title, I don’t know if Bonds leaves for San Francisco. Does he get all Kobe, and want to win one on his own, and back home? Does he want to stay with his buddy Griffey, and offer a discount to Pittsburgh? Or do the Yankees make a stronger pitch for his services? Most importantly, even if he leaves, the Pirates still have Griffey in the lineup, instead of Andy Van Slyke (who could have been traded after 91, to make room for Jeff King at 3rd and bring in some pitching help) which give Doug Drabek plenty of reason to stick around.

What happens in the June draft is most interesting. Seattle, holding the #1 pick, like their young shortstop, so they draft the highly touted pitcher, Darren Dreifort and Alex Rodriguez gets scoped up by the Dodgers. Does a major market like LA really lose A-Rod to Texas? A-Rod takes over the starting job for the Dodgers in 96, in a lineup that features Mike Piazza, Eric Karros, Delino Deshields and Raul Mondesi. And the 96 Dodgers probably make the World Series, and they wouldn’t be facing the Yankees, but very possibly, the Baltimore Orioles.

From 91-2008 the following teams actually won World Series titles (in order):
The Twins, Blue Jays *2, (strike year), Braves, Yankees, Marlins, Yankees *3, Diamond Backs, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, Red Sox, Phillies.

All that is erased if Seattle passes on Ken Griffey Jr. In 1992 the Mariners were purchased by the chairman of Nintendo, as they were also thought to be a young promising team, with perhaps the most marketable star in the game. Take Griffey away, and with struggling attendance, a new owner may have moved them to a city like Tampa Bay. A threat made by their owner in the late 80’s and early 90’s before he sold the team.

So if there’s a team already in Tampa Bay, what city would have been picked for expansion in 1998 (when the Tampa Bay we know, got the Rays) Other cities that were considered were Buffalo, Mexico City, Nashville, Washington DC, Monterrey, Vancouver, Orlando and a couple of others. I’m guessing that DC would have won the Rays franchise. Undoubtedly, Seattle would have been on the list after losing the Mariners.

If DC were selected, than were would the Expos (now Nationals) relocated to 2005. Most likely one of the cities that applied for a team in 1998 get the Expos, and give them a name that’s better than “Nationals” and they probably even spell it correctly on all their jerseys. This really may be something I need to quit my job over and right a book about. Wonder if the wife will give me the green light? Wonder if more than eight people would be interested anyway? Guessing I’ve lost most of you already, but thanks for trying!

August 18, 2009

Favre is So Old....

How old is Brett Favre? Here are some players from the same draft (1991) as Favre:

Russell Maryland (retired after 2000)
Herman Moore (retired after 2002)
Dan McGwire (brother of Mark, gone since ’95)
Todd Marinovich (retired since 1992)
Eric “sleeping with” Bieniemy (retired 1999)
Rocket Ismail (retired after 2001)

And some interesting (to me) facts about 1991:

Dan Marino was 30 years old. Joe Montana was still on the 49ers. The Bills had just lost their second Super Bowl. The Rams and Raiders played in LA, Houston had the Oilers. Baltimore didn’t have a team and Cleveland had the Browns, before they moved away. The Colts went 1-15. Tony Dungy was the defensive backs coach in Kansas City.

In basketball, Michael Jordan won his first title. He hadn’t retired even once, yet. Magic Johnson was still playing, and he’s 50 now. Shaq was 19 years old, and a junior at LSU. Duke beat Kansas for the National Championship; it was Coach K’s first title.

Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa had a combined 353 career home runs. Just 18% of the home runs they’d hit, fueled by whatever they were on at the time.

You and I didn’t Google, email, text, blog, surf the net, DVR or own DVDs. No one had CD players in their cars, and gas was $1.14 per gallon. Leonardo DiCaprio was on “Growing Pains.” Silence of the Lambs won Best Picture. Megan Fox was 5 years old, and Miley Cyrus wasn’t born yet. Michael Bolton won a Grammy for Best Pop Vocal Performance, “male.” "Rosanne" was the top rated sitcom, and "Full House" was #7.

I'm Scared Hirpless

Okay, so legally I think I understand that in this country of ours, we have the right to “bear arms.” (putting a pin in the definition of amendment) I wouldn’t call it a God given right, you know, that whole debate on if there is a God or not, not to mention that thou shalt not kill thing. So Americans, legally speaking, have the right to have guns, got it. But I have issue with these people who are bringing their guns with them to protest President Obama.

This isn’t just a statement they’re making, it’s a threat. I guess a threat is a statement, but you know what I’m saying. If I’m attending a rally of like minded people, I really don’t think I should feel the need to protect myself. Of course, if those people are off the reservation, as many of these protesters are, maybe I would.

I see two statements here:
1. It’s our right to have these here guns, tell us we can’t just cause that Negro President is in the vicinity, and we is gonna start a revolution.

2. Watch it Obama, cause we have guns.

The first is the kind of point our 7 year old would make, to take something very literal and throw it back at us. She’s way too smart for our own good. But anyone with even a little common sense knows this is just inviting someone to take a shot at the President. How can the Secret Service protect him when they know so many people have guns, and disagree pretty strongly with the guy? Flip the script on them; surround them with a few hundred black men and some American Muslims, dressed in their traditional gear, but with assault rifles hanging on their shoulders. Let’s see if they get nervous, or just appreciate some fellow American’s exercising their rights.

There was a man at a protest outside of an Obama speech in Phoenix yesterday, and he had an AR-15 on his shoulder. Click that link, and look at that friggin’ thing. That isn’t for hunting, and that isn’t for protecting ones home. That’s made for killing. Of course that man didn’t want to be identified, but told the Arizona Republic, “In Arizona, I still have some rights.” Rights, check. And the balls to go on record? Oh sorry, negative ghost rider.

Agree with the President, or disagree with the guy and his policies. Vote that way, and voice your opinion. That’s all awesome. But I know that because I’ve mentioned the President and some weapons on this post, the Secret Service will most likely read this at some point, just to gauge what kind of threat I may be. (Hey guys, I’m really no threat at all. I’m just bloggin’ here.) I’m utilizing my right to free speech and eight or nine people may even read it, but I’m not threatening the lives of anyone.

I get that I probably know less about the law than I do about gardening, and I don’t know jack about that. But even Freedom of Speech has limitations, like you can’t yell “fire” in crowd for shits and giggles. There’s Freedom of Religion, but employers can’t base employment on affiliation. Can’t there be something that prevents citizens from carrying guns when they’re anywhere near the President? It’s insane, there’s no way that it isn’t meant as a threat. Like when the Kyd has a boy come pick her up for a date in 10 years, and I’m in the kitchen sharpening knives and unloading a bag from the hardware store that just happen to contain duct tape, a shovel, rope, a mask and a giant trash bag. Damn straight I’ll be sending a message to that little shit.

This country seriously scares the shit out of me. Obama’s going to screw this country up? If you’ve been paying attention, we’ve been screwed up for years. Pretty much since the start, and even if I prefer this place, that doesn’t mean it can’t be improved. If there was some glory days that I’m not aware of, someone please point that era out for me.

I love, that if we even discuss changing anything, everyone wants to point to the Bill of Rights. Like how so many of us find God, or ask the big guy for help, only when it suits us.

***

And now its lesson time boys and girls:

a•mend•ment
1. The act of changing for the better; improvement:
2. A correction or alteration, as in a manuscript.
3. a. The process of formally altering or adding to a document or record.
b. A statement of such an alteration or addition:
4. A material, such as organic matter or sand, mixed into soil to improve growing conditions.

Our key words and phrases here are:
Changing for the better, improvement, correction or alteration, and adding.

August 12, 2009

The Line is now a Dot

There was really zero chance that I wouldn’t rant about Slutty Cyrus after her latest stunt. Rush Limbaugh would give President Obama a pass for calling someone a “cracker” before I could keep my mouth and/or blog silent on this. First, let me say that, I’m really not THAT old fashioned, and I’m really not all that conservative. What I have is lines, not those kinds of lines. These lines aren’t always easy to define, but I always know when the line has been crossed. Maybe that’s not fair, but the Kyd will have a damn good idea of where that line is. She’ll probably ask, just so she can pole vault over it. And that’s fine, as long as a pole vault is the only pole involved.

So Ms. Cyrus performed at the Teen Choice Awards this past weekend, one of 83 award shows I could literally give a shit about. Until now that is. Miley performed her new song, and during her “routine” she did a few moves with the assistance of a pole. This girl is 16 friggin’ years old, and she’s dancing on a pole. As the Sports Guy says, “Rule No. 1 of having a daughter: Keep her off the pole.”

He’s absolutely right, and Billy Ray, you failed your daughter before she could even vote, hell, you probably before she learned to read. I’m sure there’s plenty of 16 year old girls who think that’s “sexy.” These girls have been watching Britney Spears (who Cyrus called her “my hero” since they were six years old, and plenty of rap videos that feature pole dancers, and they see how 16 year old boys react. So naturally, they feel it’ll impress the boys. Here’s a lesson for the Kyd, if there’s something you can do to impress a 16 year old boy, there’s definitely a line there. Impressing 16 year old boys is as intelligent as pointing a red laser at a cop or trying to ignite your farts.

So I don’t think she’s unique for wanting to pull off being a slut, girls have been doing it since the first cavewoman went cave hopping. But the fact that both her father (first and foremost) and the producers of a show geared only to teens, and now child pornographers, someone page Chris Hansen (he seems like a guy that still wears a pager) would allow such antics.

Wait, there’s more! If you order in the next 20 minutes you can also hear my thoughts on how these “ladies” dressed. I didn’t watch it last night, but there couldn’t be a better time for Kimberly-Clark to target teenage boys with some Kleenex ads. I can’t imagine any parents who would be okay with their daughters dressing like this. Not at any age. Pretty sure my father-in-law wouldn’t look at my better half with pride in his eyes, if she dressed like that. I would, but I’m talking about parents here.

There’s a great joke by Dave Chappelle that goes like this:

"The girl says, 'Wait a minute! Just because I'm dressed this way does not make me a whore!' Which is true. Gentlemen, that is true. Just because they dress a certain way doesn't mean they are a certain way. Don't ever forget it. But ladies, you must understand that is SHIT IS CONFUSING! It just is.
Now that would be like me, Dave Chappelle the comedian, walking down the street in a cop uniform. Somebody might run up on me, saying, 'Oh, thank God. Officer, help us! Come on. They're over here. Help us!' 'OH-H0H!!! Just because I'm DRESSED this way does not make me a police officer!'
All right, ladies, fine. You are not a whore. But you are wearing a whore's uniform."

I’ve read that last year, Miley Cyrus earned $25 million, and if the average manager of a singer gets 15-20%, so her manager earned somewhere between $3.75 and $6.25 million. Just so happens that Billy Ray is his daughter’s manager. Tell me again how this isn’t pimping his daughter? Before I heard anything about her pole position, there was something online about a joke by Dane Cook. And for the record, that guy just isn’t funny. But he poked fun at another Disney cash cow, Vanessa Hudgens, for taking some nekkid pictures that leaked out. The joke, still, wasn’t funny, nor really appropriate for the setting. And that’s how you know exactly how big of a cluster fuck this whole thing is. When Dane Cook is making a good point, you’ve reached new levels of wrong.

Would it be asking too much for Senate to ignore steroids in baseball, and spend some time on how Disney is exploiting children at a Catholic Church like rate?