Baseblog

I’ve always been a big fan of “what if” and a recent story about Ken Griffey Jr has me playing the game out in some excel files. Turns out that Seattle almost passed on Griffey with the #1 pick in the 1987 draft. I’ve never even thought about that possibility, and now I’m borderline obsessed with it.

The ripple effect of that one pick, assuming everyone went on to have the careers they had, would have changed the last 22 years of baseball, as well as the future. It really is mind boggling. Up would be down, right would be left, Seattle would be Tampa and the Pirates would have been on top. As the Pirates had the second pick in the ’87 draft, and Griffey who made it to the show in 1989 would have played along side Andy Van Slyke and a 24 year old left fielder named Barry Bonds. Bobby Bonilla plays third, and the ripple begins.

I figure that the M’s lose 10 more games than they did in ’89 without JR and they end up drafting Alex Fernandez in the 1990 draft. Turns out, he’s the only Alex we’d ever picture in a Seattle jersey (which would be different today, because Griffey helped design the jerseys we now know).

The real impact comes in the 1992 draft. After the Mariners, assuming an extra 10 losses (with a few coming against the Yankees) the Mariners hold the #6 pick. So they draft a shortstop out of Kalamazoo Michigan, he goes by the name of Derek Jeter. And now we can really see how things have changed.

In October of 1992 we saw the Pirates win the World Series. They won 96 games with Alex Cole and Cecil Epsy playing right field, and they’ve been replaced with Griffey and his 27 homers (positive gain of 26). And because they didn’t need to worry about replacing the power of Bonilla who left for NY after ’91, the Pirates hold on to John Smiley, who was coming off of a 20 win season, and won 16 more for the Twins in ’92. They take out the Braves in the League Championship Series. We know of a Ken Griffey Jr who has played 21 seasons without winning a World Series, and a Bonds that played 22 without one. Now they both have a title before either is even 30 years old.

Coming off wining possibly his second World Series title, I don’t know if Bonds leaves for San Francisco. Does he get all Kobe, and want to win one on his own, and back home? Does he want to stay with his buddy Griffey, and offer a discount to Pittsburgh? Or do the Yankees make a stronger pitch for his services? Most importantly, even if he leaves, the Pirates still have Griffey in the lineup, instead of Andy Van Slyke (who could have been traded after 91, to make room for Jeff King at 3rd and bring in some pitching help) which give Doug Drabek plenty of reason to stick around.

What happens in the June draft is most interesting. Seattle, holding the #1 pick, like their young shortstop, so they draft the highly touted pitcher, Darren Dreifort and Alex Rodriguez gets scoped up by the Dodgers. Does a major market like LA really lose A-Rod to Texas? A-Rod takes over the starting job for the Dodgers in 96, in a lineup that features Mike Piazza, Eric Karros, Delino Deshields and Raul Mondesi. And the 96 Dodgers probably make the World Series, and they wouldn’t be facing the Yankees, but very possibly, the Baltimore Orioles.

From 91-2008 the following teams actually won World Series titles (in order):
The Twins, Blue Jays *2, (strike year), Braves, Yankees, Marlins, Yankees *3, Diamond Backs, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, Red Sox, Phillies.

All that is erased if Seattle passes on Ken Griffey Jr. In 1992 the Mariners were purchased by the chairman of Nintendo, as they were also thought to be a young promising team, with perhaps the most marketable star in the game. Take Griffey away, and with struggling attendance, a new owner may have moved them to a city like Tampa Bay. A threat made by their owner in the late 80’s and early 90’s before he sold the team.

So if there’s a team already in Tampa Bay, what city would have been picked for expansion in 1998 (when the Tampa Bay we know, got the Rays) Other cities that were considered were Buffalo, Mexico City, Nashville, Washington DC, Monterrey, Vancouver, Orlando and a couple of others. I’m guessing that DC would have won the Rays franchise. Undoubtedly, Seattle would have been on the list after losing the Mariners.

If DC were selected, than were would the Expos (now Nationals) relocated to 2005. Most likely one of the cities that applied for a team in 1998 get the Expos, and give them a name that’s better than “Nationals” and they probably even spell it correctly on all their jerseys. This really may be something I need to quit my job over and right a book about. Wonder if the wife will give me the green light? Wonder if more than eight people would be interested anyway? Guessing I’ve lost most of you already, but thanks for trying!